Carney Confirms Canada Studied "Extreme Tail Risk" of U.S. Military Action
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has confirmed that his government examined the "extreme tail risk" of a potential U.S. military invasion, following President Donald Trump's repeated suggestions that Canada become America's 51st state. In an interview with The New York Times, Carney said he prepared for the "extreme tail risk" that the U.S. would invade Canada amid recent trade tensions. He argued that "I think you have a responsibility in these roles to look at extreme tail risk. That's just risk management. That's not a base case," adding that "it would be irresponsible not to." Fox NewsFox News
Reports indicate Canadian military planners have modelled a U.S. invasion scenario, expecting American forces to overcome Canada's strategic positions within a week, given Canada's limited conventional military capacity, envisioning unconventional resistance tactics instead. A senior U.S. commander dismissed invasion talk as "preposterous," but Carney's remarks reveal that Ottawa's defence establishment routinely dusts off long-standing contingency plans, even for the unthinkable, amid deepening trade friction between the two allies. The Globe and Mail
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